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https://online.contractsfinder.businesslink.gov.uk/Common/View%20Notice.aspx?NoticeId=1212723
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https://naturalengland.bravosolution.co.uk Am posting this for info and not on behalf of NE - contact them not me!
E.
Specification for understanding modelling of the Great
Crested Newt in England
Purpose
This purpose of the contract is intended to
improve our understanding of statistical and spatial modelling of Great Crested
Newt (GCN) in England. The intelligence provided will inform our future
investment in GCN data and modelling, allowing us to secure value for money by
developing a measured programme of field work and model development. This will
aid us in taking evidence based decisions to benefit GCN.
Background
The Great Crested Newt (GCN) is strictly
protected under the European Habitats Directive. The Directive requires
understanding of the species’ status across its range. Knowledge of GCN
distribution at a local level is required to both comply with the strict
protection requirements afforded to this species under the Habitats Regulations
and to plan positive conservation actions for this species. The ecology and
widespread distribution of the GCN render extensive survey for national use and
detailed surveillance for local purposes across Great Britain prohibitively
expensive. Different types of models have been used or tested at a GB/national
scale, with varying levels of success, to predict pond and 1km2
occupancy, broad distribution, and trends in occurrence of the GCN. The country
agencies, working with Amphibian and Reptile Conservation(ARC), have developed
a spatial modelling approach, most advanced in Wales, using Maximum Entropy
(MaxEnt) models to predict GCN occurrence at a local scale. Additional
modelling work using least cost paths to interpret connectivity between
populations has been developed and is being used to guide developers and
conservation planners, and to aid Welsh licensing authorities in making
derogation decisions. Such modelled outputs could also help to target both
development compensation and conservation actions.
Details of the Habitats Directive surveillance
requirements and the modelling work referred to above are listed in Appendix 1.
In order to secure better outcomes for GCN
across GB the Secretary of State has established the Defra GCN Task Force. This
group has representation from across Government departments and agencies alongside
non-government organisations.
Scope
Natural England is letting this contract to
deliver the below requirements to help inform the next steps to progress this
area of work in England. It will also form part of Natural England’s
contribution to the Task Force. The contract will run in tandem with a
Memorandum of Agreement between Natural England and Amphibian and Reptile
Conservation who have developed the most detailed GCN models to date, including
those currently being effectively deployed in North Wales. The successful
contractor will need to work closely with ARC on this project.
Requirements
Requirement
1: Review existing modelling work
Undertake a review exercise to test the
rationale behind the existing modelling (details of which will be provided to
the successful contractor on contract award), working with ARC to test the type
of modelling, logic, parameters and statistics employed. While MaxEnt is widely
accepted as the foremost software for modelling species distribution, the
contractor is required to consider if other options might be more appropriate.
The contractor should suggest improvements to the existing MaxEnt approach. ARC
has c.60 separately funded staff days assigned to modelling evaluation and
improvements.
In completing this objective, the
contractor will be expected to assess the following, with reasoning:
·
Soundness
of the current rationale.
·
Predictive
power of the current approach, including an assessment of sensitivity to
different parameters, geographies and scalability.
·
Limitations
of the current approach and the likely impact on predictive power
·
Comparison
to alternative modelling approaches (i.e. different techniques).
·
Suggest
improvements that can be made.
·
Ground-truthing
requirements.
·
Requirements,
such as future field survey, for keeping model(s) up to date.
Requirement
2: Scoping analysis of future model investments.
Undertake an analysis of the data and model
development requirements, and the associated initial and ongoing costs, to
provide useful modelled outputs at a series of scales:
·
Local (e.g. one or more Local
Planning Authority or an English County)
·
Biogeographical (e.g.
multi-county such as the South East England GCN ‘hot spot’, perhaps using
National Character Areas)
·
Country (England)
Compare the cost, predictive power and
confidences of different scenarios to achieve national coverage (e.g. 30
models, 16 models, 7 models, a single model). Describe the expected returns on
investment in new data, including a point of diminishing returns if applicable,
and the value of updates.
Requirement
3: Using model outputs.
Provide technical guidance on the
interpretation of models. This should include any conversions of model outputs
necessary to ensure comparability between models if more than one is needed to
achieve national coverage.
Working with the project officer, who will
advise on relevant scenarios with the input of NE staff, the contractor will be
expected to present illustrated examples of ways in which model outputs could
potentially be applied in real-world scenarios. Scenarios are likely to
include:
·
Local
decision making on land use planning and licensing
·
Targeting
conservation and compensation mitigation measures at a sub-national scale
·
Estimating
impacts on local conservation status from developments and conservation
activity.
Requirement 4: Presentation
of findings
The
reports produced in requirements 1 – 3 to be presented at the final meeting to
the steering group at the end of the contract in a Power Point Presentation
format. Detailed arrangements of this
meeting by mutual agreement. Location likely to be London.
------------- Ewan Shilland
Contract Research Scientist
Environmental Change Research Centre
University College London
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